Ukraine’s military leaders claim a significant advancement in breaching Russia’s initial defense line in the southern region. In this analysis, we delve into the true extent of Ukrainian progress and assess the prospects of further breakthroughs along the extensive frontline.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive commenced in early June, aiming to reclaim territory seized by Russian forces. This operation targeted three key points across the 600-mile-plus frontline, with the most critical objective lying to the southeast of Zaporizhzhia.
If successful, this maneuver could disrupt Russia’s supply routes connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, particularly in the area encompassing the villages of Robotyne and Verbove, as highlighted in purple on the provided map.
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However, the progress on this front has been somewhat limited, with only sporadic advancements in the Zaporizhzhia region. The most notable development is the breach of Russia’s defensive structures near Verbove, as evidenced by nine verified social media videos along the frontline.
While these videos depict Ukrainian forces infiltrating Russian defenses north of Verbove, they do not indicate full control of the area. Ukrainian infantry has managed to breach these defenses, but we have yet to witness armored columns exploiting the gap or holding gained ground.
The slower pace of Ukraine‘s advance can be attributed to Moscow’s preemptive measures, as Russia anticipated this counterattack and constructed formidable layered defenses. These defenses, visible from space, comprise interconnected obstacles, trenches, bunkers, and minefields, all supported by artillery.
Notably, concrete anti-tank barriers known as ‘dragon’s teeth’ are part of this defensive network. Extensive minefields have proven to be a significant impediment, with densely packed mines, sometimes up to five per square meter.
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